November 08, 2024
Editorial

IRAQ ON THE EDGE

Trying to build a nonsectarian government while sectarian violence rages is the new conundrum facing the United States in Iraq. The situation is made worse by the United States’ tenuous relationship with neighboring Iran.

Nearly 400 people have been killed since Feb. 22 when a sacred Shiite shrine was bombed in Samarra. The destruction of the mosque in the largely Sunni city unleashed days of violence that was curbed by curfews and bans on cars, only to be reignited this week.

The American ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, said this week that the country had come to “the brink of civil war,” but that Iraqis had come together to avoid this fate. Bombings and other attacks that killed more than 100 people since then suggest his assessment was premature, if not overly optimistic.

Iraq is not on the verge of civil war, but has been engaged in one for the two years following the U.S. occupation and overthrow of dictator Saddam Hussein, says Bahman Baktiari, director of the University of Maine’s International Affairs Program. The bombing of the Golden Mosque escalated the violence and gave it a sectarian stamp, he says. Worse, every attack will not be portrayed as having religious overtones, whether that is true or not.

The situation is so grim that even calls for calm from Moktada al-Sadr, the vehemently anti-American Shiite cleric, were ignored.

The United States has few options for calming the situation. If it supports the Iraqi government in cracking down on the attacks, it will be seen as siding with the Shiite majority. This will only further inflame Sunni anger.

Iraq’s neighbors, especially Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia, are fearful of a full-fledged civil war because of its repercussions. The United States refuses to deal with Iran because the country’s extremist government is pursuing nuclear weapons and has said Israel should be wiped off the map. The relationship with Syria is marginally better.

Adding to the gloomy outlook, Iraq’s national security adviser, Mowaffak al-Rubaie, warned that the formation of a new government will take a few more months. The situation is complicated by the sporadic participation of the Sunni minority. “I expect we will go down a rough road with a lot of political mines in our way to forming a new government,” he said. He asked Iraqis to be patient.

It will take a lot more than patience or President Bush’s simplistic call for Iraqis to chose either “chaos or unity” to stabilize Iraq.

Fighting in Iraq entered a new phase last month. Halting the violence will take more intense negotiations and diplomacy with Iraq’s neighbors than the United States has been engaged in so far.


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