The formation this weekend of an Iraqi government is a positive step. However, the new government must fulfill its pledge to stop the bombings and killings, something it and U.S. troops have been unable to do for three years, to reverse the troubling trend of middle-class families leaving the country at an increasing pace. As much as daily killings and the contentious formation of a government, this exodus threatens to undermine the country’s already shaky foundation.

The middle class provides the people, ideas and daily commerce needed to keep Iraq functioning. They are also an important moderating influence because they are largely urban and secular. If this moderating voice becomes muted, or even silenced, the religious and ethnic divisions that prompt many of the daily killings will worsen.

University of Maine political science professor Bahman Baktiari sees parallels to Lebanon. In 1971, middle-class families began fleeing that country for fear that it was headed to civil war, which it did. The middle class, which follows the news at home and abroad, sees the same signs in Iraq today, where an average of 100 people have been killed daily in Baghdad in recent weeks, according to American military commanders.

British officials, accompanying Prime Minister Tony Blair on a surprise visit to Baghdad, said international forces may begin leaving Iraq in four years. In the United States pressure is mounting to bring American troops home sooner than that and rebuilding efforts are being scaled back.

This leads many Iraqis to conclude that the situation will get worse before it gets better, says Professor Baktiari. If able, many are seeking safety in other countries.

As reported by The New York Times, new passports have been issued to 1.85 million Iraqis, 7 percent of the country’s population and a quarter of the middle class. The Ministry of Education issued twice as many letters permitting parents to take their children’s academic records abroad in 2005 as the previous year. It is believed that 1 million Iraqis have moved to Jordan and an equal number are thought to have gone to Syria in the three years since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.

Those departing are also teachers, doctors, shop owners and government functionaries. Their absence will slow government operations, jeopardize health care and weaken schools. Without middle-class customers, jobs will disappear, furthering the financial distress of the underclass, fueling support for the militia.

On his first day as prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki acknowledged the departure of the country’s middle class and said that ending the violence was the new government’s top priority. Backed by U.S. and British forces, Iraq must be made safe for Iraqis.