Last week, the White House jettisoned the phrase “Stay the course” to describe its strategy for Iraq. Tactics change all the time to respond to the enemy, has become President Bush’s new mantra. What the changing rhetoric misses is that the overall policy in Iraq is failing and that no amount of tactical changes can save it.

By the military’s account, Iraq is steadily moving toward chaos. A slide used during an Oct. 18 classified briefing by the U.S. Central Command shows that based on more than a dozen factors the situation in Iraq is worsening. The command, which oversees the war in Iraq, used indicators such as sectarian attacks, the ineffectual police and army and violence displacing the populace to measure Iraq’s position on the Index of Civil Conflict. The index ranges from peace to chaos.

Before the bombing of a Shiite shrine in Samarra in February, the situation in Iraq measured just to the chaotic side of the middle of the index. In mid-October it had moved to halfway between the middle and chaos. The next week it edged even closer to chaos.

A note at the bottom of the slide said: “Urban areas experiencing ‘ethnic cleansing’ campaigns to consolidate control … violence at all-time high, spreading geographically.”

This dire assessment mirrors the review last week of Iraqi security forces by the special inspector gen-eral for Iraq that found “significant challenges” that could imperil the transfer of security responsibilities to Iraqi forces by Jan. 1, 2008.

Sen. John Kerry’s maladroit remarks about the intellect of U.S. soldiers or, perhaps, the president aside, the administration continues to fail to acknowledge the reality in Iraq.

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld last week briefed reporters on “projections” for when Iraq might be able to handle the tasks the U.S. government has assigned to it. He said U.S. officials are working with their Iraqi counterparts to develop “a set of tasks that they need to do to get prepared to assume the responsibility for governing their country and providing security for their country.”

Talking about preparing Iraqis to be prepared for security and governing responsibilities is a sad statement on the lack of progress in the three years after the invasion of Baghdad and nearly a year since the last Iraqi election.

Worse, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki loudly renounced the administration’s assurances that they had agreed to a timetable to reach the benchmarks. In other words, there was no agreement on when the preparations for being prepared would be complete.

The Iraqi Study Group led by former Secretary of State James Baker is reportedly considering major changes such as a gradual withdrawal of U.S. troops to bases beyond Iraq and a more ambitious option of including Iran and Syria in talks to help bring stability to the region.

Their recommendations are expected to be heavy on practical notions of improving security and establishing order.

That could be the only course available.