The president of Iran, known for his inflexibility, bravado, unwillingness to work with other factions and overconfidence in the strength of his political base, was rebuked at the ballot box recently. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will remain in power but his influence was diminished by the results of the Dec. 15 voting. Iran’s president, like President Bush last month, suffered political losses in part because of Iraq but also because voters had grown tired of heated rhetoric on international issues with little change in the standard of living at home.
In the elections, for both the Assembly of Experts and for municipal offices, reformists and moderate conservatives gained ground while hard-line conservatives, like Mr. Ahmadinejad, lost.
Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president who has long advocated closer ties with the West, won a large majority to head the Assembly of Experts, the high-level parliamentary body that will chose the next supreme leader, the religious figure whose dictates are treated as law in Iran. Mr. Rafsanjani received nearly twice as many votes as the cleric considered President Ahmadinejad’s mentor. Many female candidates were also elected, another rebuke to hard-line conservatives.
Mr. Rafsanjani is the Jim Baker of Iran, says Bahman Baktiari, a political science professor at the University of Maine. As one of the few power figures in Iran who is willing to deal with the United States and other Western countries, his increased power is good news for these countries. However, like Mr. Baker and his already ignored Iraq Study Group, Mr. Rafsanjani’s power is limited.
Even so, the results will enable Mr. Rafsanjani to speak out against the president more often, further empowering other more moderate voices. Student groups are also beginning to speak up. President Ahmadinejad faced his first protest at a Tehran university earlier this month.
The wild card, of course, is Saudi Arabia, which doesn’t want a strong Iran or a Shiite-controlled Iraq and has threatened to fund the Sunni insurgency in Iraq.
Among the lessons Professor Baktiari says the United States should take from the elections is that Iran’s nuclear ambitions weren’t a big factor in the elections. More people were concerned with the economy and jobs than the country’s insistence on its right to develop nuclear technology. Economic sanctions, being considered by the United Nations against Iran for refusing to stop it nuclear work, could further erode the president’s support.
President Ahmadinejad’s election losses, while not likely to lead to quick changes in Iran’s policies, show that more moderate voices are rising. It is a good sign.
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