On paper, it doesn’t look good for the University of Maine hockey team.

The Black Bears, 13-12-1 since an 8-0-1 start, were just swept by the University of Massachusetts and, as a result, will have to return to Amherst, Mass., for a Hockey East quarterfinal series that will determine whether the Bears earn their ninth straight NCAA Tournament berth or turn in their uniforms.

Maine is 12th in the PairWise Rankings that mimic the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee’s process.

They would all but sew up a bid by winning the series. UMass also has to win to keep its NCAA hopes alive.

UMass, a quick, well-balanced and hardworking team, will be confident. The Minutemen have momentum and goalie Jon Quick is one of the league’s best and has played 49 career games.

Meanwhile, Maine will again have to rely on backup Dave Wilson, who has 12 games on his resume. Starting goalie Ben Bishop (groin pull) will be out at least two more weeks.

Wilson has yet to win a road game but seems to be getting more comfortable and less nervous with each game.

He will have to play better than he did last weekend.

And he is capable of doing so.

He made several impressive saves in the 3-1 and 5-3 losses but left too many rebounds the first night and wasn’t able to come up with the critical saves when the team needed them the second night.

He was also victimized by some glaring mistakes by his mates that resulted in goals.

Wilson has found himself in a difficult predicament. Every game he has started has been a crucial one.

All his teammates can expect from him is that he gives them a chance to win. He has done that.

He isn’t Ben Bishop but he’ll give them his best effort.

His teammates will have to be more consistent in all phases of the game. They can be a very good hockey team. That consistency just hasn’t surfaced much in the second half.

They may score enough goals to win a game but they won’t get the goaltending or they’ll play lackluster defense and give up odd-man rushes.

This is the first Maine team since the 1993-94 team that has lost more than one game in which it has scored at least five goals. It dropped 6-5 games to Boston University and Boston College.

Sometimes they’ll just get outworked. They won’t exhibit the grit you need to win loose pucks.

That simply isn’t acceptable at Maine.

Former Merrimack College coach Chris Serino said the thing he liked best about Maine teams was that they were not only skilled, they also worked hard all the time.

The defense corps will have to keep things simple and make sure they gap properly on the big ice sheet at the Mullins Center, which is 10 feet wider than the Alfond Arena ice.

Maine’s defense corps isn’t that mobile and can be exploited on the big sheet if they aren’t in good position. Expect Mike Lundin, Travis Ramsey and Bret Tyler to play a ton.

The forwards will need to attack the net.

The Bears must also play as a team, not as a group of individuals, and play with urgency.

Maine has much more playoff experience than UMass, having been in 18 playoff games the previous three years including eight in the NCAA Tournament.

UMass has played in seven Hockey East playoff games but no NCAA tourney games.

Expect a three-game series.

Larry Mahoney can be reached at 990-8231, 1-800-310-8600 or by email at lmahoney@bangordailynews.net.