Since late last year, the specter of a national recession has dominated the talk among financial columnists and network pundits, and, in this election year, among politicians. The fate of the economy has, according to surveys, replaced the war in Iraq as the issue of most concern to voters. News outlets are often cautioned to tread lightly in using the “R” word, because telling people that the nation is in a recession can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Wary consumers, repeatedly told the economy is receding, put off purchases, which in turn further weakens the consumption-based economy.

But for Maine, there may be some good news. Michael Donihue, an economics professor at Colby College who serves on the state’s Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission, said Maine may be somewhat insulated from any national recession. The commission projects no increase in jobs in the state over the next year, but it does not believe Maine will see a recession. A recession is declared when jobs and production recede, rather than grow, over two consecutive three-month periods. Oddly enough, the body which determines whether a recession occurs does so after the fact.

Prof. Donihue said Maine may reflect a national economic slowdown. A national recession, if there is one, may generally be tied to losses in the financial services, banking and housing sectors. Maine may see some of that, he said, but Maine banks mostly avoided the subprime lending boom and the resulting hangover. And the housing market during the boom of the late 1990s and early 2000s saw less speculation in Maine than in other regions of the U.S., Prof. Donihue observed. Housing construction actually dipped in 2006 and 2007 in the state, so the worst may be over in that sector.

And in an odd irony – one that’s been observed before – Maine’s economy didn’t grow as quickly as the nation’s over the past six years. The reason is that Maine doesn’t have a growing labor force to sustain rapid growth in employment, Prof. Donihue said. Less rapid growth means a less precipitous fall.

The weaker U.S. dollar can mean more Canadian shoppers and tourists, particularly in northern and eastern Maine. The weaker dollar also can help boost Maine’s exports to Europe and Asia.

Still, it won’t be all peaches and cream. Fuel costs continue to suck money out of people’s pockets that otherwise would be spent on goods and services, which will result in a softening of the retail sector. Demand for paper products is also declining, which will affect the state economy.

But the national and state economies remain structurally sound, according to Prof. Donihue, with the exception of the housing market. Economists, he said, don’t take into account another part of the economic equation in Maine: People here don’t have the same need to own the latest electronic gadget, the newest vehicle and the nicest clothes. That lifestyle choice may also cushion Maine from a consumer slump.