Is our success in Iraq headed for a sudden meltdown?

Gen. Petraeus notwithstanding, American military officials in Iraq acknowledge that last year’s reduction in violence started before – and was not principally due to – the “surge” of 30,000 additional American troops in 2007.

The reduction in violence started in 2006 with what is known as “The Awakening” in the Sunni western part of Iraq. The Awakening reduced violence in two ways. First, Sunnis “ethnically cleansed” the remaining Shia out of Sunni enclaves, leaving few left to kill. Second, local Sunnis turned against the mostly-foreign radical Sunni fundamentalists known as “al-Qaeda in Iraq,” who had made life so intolerable that local people rose up against them.

American military authorities took advantage of this development by paying Sunnis not only to fight al-Qaeda, but also to not fight Americans.

The “Sons of Iraq” jobs program grew to where the U.S. is now paying over 100,000 Sunnis up to $300 a month, $303 million this year alone.

This protection racket is now threatening to unravel. We promised Sunnis that the mostly-Shiite Baghdad government would hire them into the Iraqi army and police. However, not only is the government refusing to hire the most of the Sons of Iraq, but it has also issued warrants for the arrest of 650 of its leaders and is considering demanding the rest turn in their weapons by November. The Sunnis say this is unacceptable.

Our much-vaunted “success” is sitting on a ticking time bomb.

Dick Atlee

Southwest Harbor