AUGUSTA — In the fiscal year that ended June 30, the costs of the state’s principal welfare program, Aid to Families with Dependent Children, increased 12 percent, but the Department of Human Services is projecting no increase this fiscal year, a projection drawing criticism from state officials.

“There is no way that can be true, just no way,” said Sen. Michael D. Pearson, D-Enfield, co-chairman of the Legislature’s Appropriations Committee. “That can’t be true; they can’t know what they are doing if that is what they are projecting.”

Pearson, and other members of the panel, were astonished that DHS is projecting no growth in welfare costs with current economic conditions and the growth of the General Assistance program, a welfare program administered by the cities and towns and funded on a 50-50 basis by the state.

“I know what town officials are telling me,” said Rep. Donald V. Carter, D-Winslow, “I cannot see how they cannot foresee an increase, unless they don’t want to see it. It’s not the first time they haven’t played it straight.”

Carter, who also serves on the Winslow Town Council, said the estimate by DHS defies common sense. He said his committee will closely monitor to see if DHS estimates are correct.

“We are at about 20,000 cases,” said Sabra Burdick, director of the Bureau of Income Maintenance. “We are not predicting it will go above that. Even though the economy is going through a slowdown, we still have a pretty low unemployment rate.”

Burdick said she expects there will be additional people seeking state assistance, but that they will be offset by a projected 2,600 individuals who will be completing training under the ASPIRE job training program over the next few months. She said there also are nearly as many persons ready to start the job training program as will be completing the various training options.

“We are going to continue to train folks for the work force, and the jobs are going to be there,” she said.

Burdick said the training programs are not preparing people for minimum-wage or dead-end jobs, but for professions and occupations that will remove them from the welfare rolls and provide them with good-paying jobs.

“We are training people to be teachers, nurses and other jobs where the need is continuing, where people are needed,” she said.

Rep. Peter J. Manning, D-Portland, the co-chairman of the Legislature’s Human Resources Committee, said he has no doubt there will be an increase in state-operated welfare programs, as there has been in the General Assistance program.

“To say that it is not going to increase, with the way the economy is going, is just wrong. There will definitely be an increase,” Manning said. “Maybe not as much as the 12 percent last year, but there will definitely be an increase.”

He said he hopes the increase will not be of the magnitude being experienced in the General Assistance program. He said local welfare directors have told him the costs are “going through the roof” and that record numbers are being set this summer, although the winter months are traditionally the most taxing on the program.

“Welfare directors across the state are reporting higher than expected applications,” said Jeff Herman of the Maine Municipal Association. “They are telling me we are seeing a change in who is applying as well, with more of the elderly and working people asking for help.”

Although the books haven’t been closed, Herman said he expects the total cost of the state’s share of General Assistance to reach $15 million for the fiscal year that ended June 30. He said the state’s share in the previous fiscal year had been just under $11 million.

“I can’t see how one program can see that sort of increase, and they say other programs will not increase as well,” he said.

Burdick said the trends do not match, in part, because the General Assistance law was changed from a more complicated reimbursement formula that required higher local expenditures. She said as a result of the change, comparisons between welfare programs and the analysis of expenditures is difficult.