A look at the current economic slowdown immediately suggests two sources that would benefit immensely from a federal economic stimulus package and would, in turn, benefit everyone else. The latest House package, naturally, all but ignores them.
Thirty-one states, including Maine, have shortfalls and are pulling back their spending just as they should be spending more to revive their economies. Gov. King, while urging residents not to wait on making purchases, has ordered the state to do just that. Tourism-dependent states like Florida and Hawaii are hundreds of millions of dollars behind in expected revenues. An infusion of federal support would allow states to stay on track or speed up infrastructure work that would maintain jobs now and strengthen their economies in the future.
Consumers during the 1990s shopped ’til they dropped the national savings rate to near zero and can take credit now for accounting for two-thirds of gross domestic product. The economic engine of the United States looks like hordes of men and women with shopping bags in one hand and a credit card in the other. They aren’t quite as efficient as the states for spending all their revenues, but they could spend enough to make a real difference in the economy. Lower income shoppers in particular could use a tax break, rebate or tax credit to make ends meet.
Instead, the House rewards corporations for investments they have been making anyway and puts in place permanent tax cuts are unaffordable and could end up having long-term harmful effects on interest rates. The Christmas-tree GOP House stimulus package is 50 percent larger than the upper end of what President Bush called for and twice what Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan thought the nation could afford. Its size means that it includes some help for states and consumers, but they are not nearly as central to the package as generous campaign donors are. The White House, which supports portions of the proposal, nevertheless seems embarrassed by the sheer greed it contains.
The Senate is doing better, although it is still too early to tell what sort of stimulus it eventually will approve. Centrists, who will be crucial to getting a vote on a package, met with Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill yesterday to discuss what the package should include. Their principles, sent by the bipartisan team of Sens. Olympia Snowe and John Breaux, sound hopeful. They include, for instance, a call to make the impact of the package felt immediately, to keep it temporary and to be designed to spur consumer demand and business investment.
This is a more sensible course and one that the White House should be involved in shaping. The House proposal gave a good sense of the special interests to which members of Congress are obligated. The Senate version, for the sake of helping the economy, needs to be better.
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