AUGUSTA – Weather experts predicted Wednesday that 2001 will go down as the driest year Maine has experienced since 1894 when the first official rainfall levels were recorded.

Speaking to members of the State Drought Task Force, Hendricus Lulofs of the National Weather Service in Caribou said it would take 6 inches of rainfall between now and the end of the year to offset the landmark effects of the continuing drought. The statewide average annual rainfall is expected to be just under 25 inches for the year, he said.

“I think we have better than a 50-50 chance of this being the driest year on record statewide,” Lulofs said. “The Bangor area specifically needs a little bit less than 4 inches of rain or it will see its driest year.”

Coordinated by the Maine Emergency Management Agency, the task force members were disappointed that Maine had failed to experience any of the tropical downpours some had hoped for during late September and October. They had been banking on such a development to bring relief from the drought conditions.

With only average precipitation during the past two months, Lulofs said the Acadia National Park area was more than 20 inches below normal in annual rainfall, and northern Aroostook County was down by more than 5 inches.

“And for the rest of November, we’re expecting below normal precipitation,” Lulofs said. “As we get into the winter, we’re looking for colder than usual temperatures and precipitation at or just slightly below normal. With such large departures in precipitation, that’s not going to help erode the deficits that we’ve seen.”

Up and down the East Coast, drought trackers have recorded the same data again and again. It was the third-driest October on record for Connecticut and New Jersey; the fourth-driest for Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Delaware and Virginia; and the fifth-driest for Maryland.

“We got a system that’s keeping the winds blowing from land. The moisture from the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico is cut off from coming inland,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Bob Stauber.

Spring will be a crucial period for Maine, according to Lulofs, who said significant rains during the spring thaw are needed to recover from the severe drought. An average spring rainfall, and particularly something less than average, could spell disaster for Mainers with dug wells. Those shallow home water systems represent about 25 percent of all wells in the state, according to Marc Loiselle of the Maine Geological Survey.

At depths of no more than 20 feet, dug wells cannot withstand extended drought conditions that drilled wells can. Loiselle and Nancy Beardsley of the state Bureau of Health have heard complaints from residents whose dug wells have either dried up this year or are expected to do so next year.

“If you have a shallow well, since the water tables are low, the amount of water over your pump is less than what you would have in normal conditions, so you’re liable to have a situation where if it is used excessively, you’ll run out of storage,” Loiselle said. “So I’m telling people with shallow wells not to do anything to stress their system, because they’re liable to use up what storage they do have and perhaps damage their systems.”

Beardsley’s department regulates public water systems in the state and so far, only the towns of Boothbay and Castine have ordered mandatory conservation measures. Others, such as Calais and Island Falls, have implemented voluntary conservation programs. Most Maine municipalities are taking a wait-and-see approach to water conservation, hoping that a wet spring will replenish the water table. Beardsley was more circumspect.

“I think the report by the National Weather Service is quite sobering,” she said. “It doesn’t look like we’re going to have any influxes of precipitation in the foreseeable future, and it looks like the best situation will be a cold, but normal precipitation winter. That doesn’t bode well for people who are already having problems.”

Members of the State Drought Task Force agreed to meet again early next year and remain in contact to discuss any future drought developments.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.