An iceberg directly ahead of the good ship Maine is a lawsuit over its plan to help restore the Atlantic salmon in seven rivers Down East. Maine will crash into it only if it refuses to begin maneuvering now.

Maine wanted to avoid the probable economic dislocation caused by a listing of the Atlantic salmon under the Endangered Species Act, so it worked with federal regulators to devise its own conservation plan last year for the Dennys, Machias, East Machias, Narraguagus, Pleasant, Ducktrap and Sheepscot rivers. The plan was modeled on an Oregon strategy for restoring coho salmon. Last week, a federal judge ruled that Oregon’s plan was inadequate because it relied on future actions, had unenforceable protections and failed to present a secure source of funding for restoration.

The state of Oregon says it plans to appeal, but the signal to environmental groups was clear — Maine’s salmon plan is the next obvious target.

First, what Maine should not do. It should not count on bluster or threats of countersuits. The courts don’t care about that and it gives the plaintiffs something to put in their newsletters. It should not refuse to review its plan. A good-faith effort to modify it in light of the coho decision would strengthen its case if the state is sued. It should not panic. A lot of good people put a ton of work into the plan; even if it needs to be changed, it remains a strong document.

It is important to remember that the judge in the Oregon decision reaffirmed the value of state plans, but concluded that Oregon’s failed to measure up. Maine could address those shortcomings now, which would both meet the concerns of some of the environmental groups and better position the state if it does end up in court. For instance, it could advance funding for planned future projects, getting them under way now and putting the money out of reach of next year’s legislators.

Maine already has regulations that help protect salmon from siltation, erosion and sedimentation, that protect water quality and restrict timber-cutting in shorelands. These do not, by themselves, adequately address the feds’ concerns about the scarce runs of wild salmon but they show the state wants wild salmon restored, too. It is important for Maine to convey that message: It is committed to helping restore the salmon, but thinks it has a better way than an ESA listing.

Some related issues

Two large questions impede Maine in its salmon restoration. Are wild salmon really wild, or just a distinct, older strain of hatchery-raised salmon? And, can Maine really do anything about the extremely low number of these salmon in its rivers or does the salmon’s high mortality rate at sea doom the restoration effort?

The “wild” question is similar to forestry’s old-growth puzzle. It may be less important to decide when a stand of old trees becomes an old-growth forest than to determine how those trees fit into and contribute to the ecosystem. Same with the salmon. Whether they are wild is less important, ecologically anyway, than what their distinctiveness provides to the species.

The marine-survival question is tougher. Maine can stock plenty of salmon smolts in the seven rivers. The problem, biologists say, is that they don’t come back. It may be that the salmon are being caught by Greenland’s commercial fishermen, or they may be dinner for dogfish, which are missing their accustomed diet of groundfish. If either is the case, then improving habitat in the rivers beyond current levels is an exercise in keeping regulators happy rather than helping salmon, and naturally causes resentment for people who live near the rivers.

Without making this its primary argument, Maine could help itself by demonstrating that the future of Atlantic salmon is largely out of its hands, and the prudent course for the state is simply to keep river habitat in shape for the day that the marine problems are solved.

Chances are excellent that Maine will be sued over its restoration plan. Its options are to sit and wait or learn from the Oregon’s defeat. The state can both defend its plan and improve it, helping the salmon and retaining policies it believes best serve the people and wildlife of Maine.