Though all the actors gathered quickly, who can say whether the $8.5 billion drama over coveted state highway funds is already scripted? If it is, this will happen: State highway officials will testify about the centrality of federal funding to local transportation plans, members of Congress will talk thoughtfully about the essential trust between federal and state governments that rise or fall on Washington meeting its responsibilities, a Transportation conference committee will find the lost money in the $18 billion surplus of the Highway Trust Fund and President Bush will reluctantly send out highway funding he knew was going out anyway while also spending more on the military and keeping the next decade’s tax cuts healthy.

Every president, like every governor, needs budget bargaining chips and President Bush has found a terrific one in the highway money, which matches a dollar of state funding with four, five or six dollars of federal money and upon which states absolutely depend to get roads and bridges built and potholed asphalt repaved. Strong lobbying from the sand-and-gravel folks in Washington makes this strategy even more effective. Call it a triple winner if you also count the fact that the 2003 re-authorization of the federal highway funding for the next six years will be based on this budget.

The White House’s reasoning for chopping up the highway fund has a veneer of believability – revenue from fuel taxes, the largest source of income for the fund, is expected to be down because of the recession and the increased use of gasohol, which is taxed at a lower rate than gasoline. But the Treasury’s estimation of revenues could well be off because state after state, Maine included, is reporting no decline or even increases in fuel taxes. In any event, President Bush isn’t tied to a formula for distributing highway funds and the ample surplus within the fund means he can maintain funding through a recession that his own economists say may be ending.

Already Maine’s congressional delegation is vowing to prevent the president’s transportation cuts from occurring. Rep. John Baldacci, who is a member of the House Transportation Committee, said Tuesday, “It’s imperative that road and bridge repairs, and other vital projects, move forward. We can not pull the rug out from under needed improvement initiatives – some of which are necessary for safety reasons.” State Transportation Commissioner John Melrose notes that under President Bush’s budget, Maine would raise $150 million in the federal gas tax but receive only $110 million back. The total loss of highway funding in Maine is proposed at $37.2 million, which hurts doubly because the state already has one of the worst-funded road systems in the nation.

The congressional debate over the president’s budget will take months, and given the fragile state of the economy, could still hold surprises. But it is hard to imagine that members of Congress will go home next fall to face re-election in the fall and allow questions over unfilled potholes and deferred highway ramps to bring the curtain down on their careers.