Barring an international event that could break the momentum of detente, the mellowing of U.S.-Soviet relations and the underwriting of the peace dividend soon will have unpleasant consequences for the residents of most of the 50 states.

The multi-billion-dollar debate over cuts in the defense budget will produce fallout everywhere, from the cities that manufacture components of the $800-million-per-copy B-2 bomber, to states with bases deemed non-essential in a world without an aggressive Soviet Empire.

Last week, in an aftershock to earlier rumors that regional shipyards might be stranded for work when military programs dry up, the Pentagon confirmed that Brunswick Naval Air Station is one of 34 installations being considered for closure.

The facility employs a total of 4,100 military and civilian personnel. It has an annual payroll of $87 million and pumps another $28 million into the state’s economy through the purchase of goods and services. Understandably, Rep. Joseph Brennan, in whose district the air station is located, quickly qualifed the Pentagon hit list as “a very, very preliminary document.” Sen. William Cohen, who recently took a dramatic stand against continued funding of the B-2, maintained a better poker face. The Navy, he cautiously advised, is only in the process of doing the important job of reviewing programs and facilities.

Brunswick is big, but Loring Air Base, with approximately 4,000 military and civilian employees and a $92.5 million combined annual payroll, is located in an area that is almost totally dependent on it for economic support. A perennial candidate for curtailment or closure, Loring, too, eventually may make someone’s suggested list for economizing.

Having powerful and influential representatives in Congress may blunt the blow to regional economies when bases close and defense contracts disappear, but it is unrealistic to expect in a nation determined to make deep cuts in military spending that any state will come out whole when all 50 are competing for a share of a shrinking defense budget.

Maine has to do whatever it can to hold onto the bases and contracts it has, but it should do what it must to prepare for the inevitable day when changed military missions and new spending priorities bring inescapably bad news.

The Congress has a responsibility to help all states ease the pain of transition from military to peacetime use of land and resources, but Maine, like every other state, has an obligation to its people to prepare them for the worst economically, even while they hope for the best in harmonious international relations.

The governor, the State Planning Office and regional development corporations should be ready to rebut arguments for abandonment by the Defense Department, but they also should have a secure fallback position, where Maine can meet the challenge of economic survival in the absence of a huge annual infusion of Pentagon funds.