COMMENTARY

AUGUSTA — Whether the timing of a statewide vote on expanded Sunday sales affects the outcome of the referendum itself, it also could have an impact on both the Democratic and Republican primaries for the 1st Congressional District nominations.

There is widespread speculation at the State House that an attempt may be made to schedule the looming Sunday sales referendum for the June 12 primaries, rather than waiting for the Nov. 6 general election. Advocates of allowing large stores to open on Sunday oppose such a change, arguing that the question should be put before the largest possible electorate.

But with the financially pressed Legislature looking for new sources of cash, there may be sentiment to place the item on the June ballots so that, if approved, Sunday shopping could be expanded in time to attract summer tourists and the additional sales tax revenue they can contribute.

State Tax Assessor John LaFaver said the proposal could ultimately bring in an additional $3.8 million a year. He predicts that the plan, if enacted in June, could generate $3.1 million for the budget year beginning July 1 and running through June 1991. Enactment in November would reduce the state’s anticipated take for that fiscal year to $1.7 million, he estimates.

With the state facing a potential $210 million revenue shortfall through mid-1991, every little bit of new cash would help.

Still, there are widely divergent views on whether the referendum would stand as strong a chance of passage in June, when only the most committed Democrats and Republicans normally go to the polls. Some observers suggest the anti-Sunday-sales forces might be better positioned to prevail if they could flood placid primary voting places with waves of hard-core opponents.

However the timing of the vote affects the ballot question, the extra voter turnout it would presumably generate could make a big difference in southern Maine’s five-way Democratic congressional contest and two-way GOP battle.

Conventional wisdom, most observers agree, gives the edge to the best-known candidate when a large number of voters go to the polls. Lesser known candidates, similarly, are thought to benefit when turnout is low and their partisans can make up a substantial portion of the electorate.

The most well-known of the 1st District Democratic hopefuls is generally conceded to be Attorney General James E. Tierney. Tierney, who is only moving into the district this month, has held his highly visible post since 1981 and ran statewide, if unsuccessfully, as the Democratic candidate for governor four years ago.

That exposure would seem to give him a potential leg up over his four rivals: City Council member Linda E. Abromson of Portland, Sen. Thomas H. Andrews of Portland, former Maine State House Authority chief Elizabeth H. Mitchell of Vassalboro and former Unity College President Ralph Conant of Winslow.

Of course, the other candidates have been around, too. Abromson has a network of municipal-issue contacts. Andrews has been a leader among Democratic progressives for a decade. Mitchell is a former majority leader of the House of Representatives who unsuccessfully challenged Republican U.S. Sen. William S. Cohen’s re-election in 1984. Conant sought the 1st District nomination but lost in 1984.

On the Republican side, the conventional wisdom would award the name recognition edge to former U.S. Rep. David F. Emery of St. George, who gave up the congressional seat he is seeking to reclaim after four terms to unsuccessfully challenge Democratic U. S. Sen. George J. Mitchell in 1982.

Emery’s lesser known opponent, state Rep. John S. McCormick Jr. of Rockport, is just completing his first term in the House.

Now, whether the Sunday sales referendum affects either of these races depends on several factors, the first of which, of course, is whether it is scheduled to coincide with this spring’s primary voting.

Even if it is, the question then becomes, what types of voters who would ordinarily eschew the parties’ nomination fights turn out to express themselves on Sunday sales? Charge-card-carrying yuppies? Blue-collar laborites? Church group members?

The possibilities are sufficient to give every candidate enough to war-game endlessly. All this, and no move yet to actually move the referendum date from November to June.

But, after all, there is arguably financial reason for some to propose it, and recent legislative precedent for doing so.

In a controversial Democratic maneuver in 1986, majority lawmakers succeeded in shifting the date of an anti-pornography referendum from November to June. That year, which was also the year of the last gubernatorial election, primary turnouts both soared, to more than 118,000 for the Democrats and to more than 116,000 for the Republicans.

In contrast, the gubernatorial year primaries of 1982 drew less than 75,000 Democrats and less than 85,000 Republicans.