Analysis

You could say it is an enigma. Unpredictable would be another word. It appears to play just well enough to win.

But the University of Maine baseball team has certainly answered the bell in the North Atlantic Conference after last year’s embarrassing 19-24-1 season (11-11 in the NAC) and betting scandal that resulted in the suspension of 13 players.

The team has rung up a league-best 22-4 NAC record, but it is very difficult to assess how this team will do in the upcoming NAC playoffs.

The school has submitted a bid to host the NCAA Northeast Regionals and would stand a good chance of doing just that – based on its impressive track record of hosting six regionals and putting fans in the seats for those regionals – if it wins the NAC Tournament and earns the automatic berth to the NCAA tourney.

Doing well in the NAC tourney without winning it may still keep Maine in the running to host a regional.

They are currently 28-21 (27-20 in the eyes of the NCAA since the Husson split doesn’t count) and probably need to win at least 30 games to receive NCAA consideration.

This Maine team is not a College World Series-caliber team, but it is a team that could win a couple of games in the regionals if it gets that far.

It is also a team that could drop two to Northeastern in the NAC quarterfinals this weekend. Maine will also be playing a three-game series against No. 16 (Baseball America poll) Oklahoma State this weekend.

Here is a look at the 1993 Bears:

Defense: Maine has committed 88 errors in 49 games, resulting in 53 unearned runs. Its fielding percentage is .946. There is no question that shortstop Shanan Knox and second baseman Todd Livingston give the Bears as much range in the middle of the diamond as they have had in many, many years. They have made some dazzling plays.

By the same token, they have been inconsistent (Knox, 23 errors; Livingston, 24), even on routine balls. They have to be consistent in the playoffs.

Third baseman Justin Tomberlin (8 errors), a converted catcher-outfielder, has been a good fielder but an erratic thrower at times.

First baseman Gabe Duross (7 errors) is exceptional.

In the outfield, speedy Chad White has developed into one of the finest center fielders to ever play at Maine. Bill Champi is respectable in left field and Wayne Conlan gives Maine some speed in right, although he is still learning the position and makes mistakes.

Catcher Shawn Tobin is a terrific handler of pitchers. Defensively, he is adequate, but his arm is nothing to write home about.

One good sign is that Maine just put together back-to-back errorless games for the first time this season.

Offense: The team is hitting .300 on the nose with 36 homers and 70 stolen bases in 88 attempts. Maine is averaging 5.5 runs per game.

White (30 steals), Knox (18), Livingston (11), and Conlan (4) give Maine the ability to manufacture runs with its speed and that can be important in low-scoring playoff games.

The Bears have power in the middle of the lineup in No. 4 hitter Tobin (.352-5 homers-48 RBIs), No. 5 Duross (.347-7-39), No. 6 Champi (.250-7-27), and No. 7 Stupienski (.294-7-23), the DH.

Tomberlin (.295-3-12) and Conlan (.207) give Maine a productive bottom of the order.

This team has had its problems with breaking balls and offspeed pitches and must learn to? take the ball the other way.

The Bears must be smart at the plate. When they are leading off an inning, they must take pitches when they are way ahead in the count (3-0, 3-1, 2-0).

Pitching: The good news is that three-time NAC Pitcher of the Week Mark Ballard has developed into a full-fledged stopper. He is 6-2 with a 2.55 earned run average (1.35 up north) and has fanned 76 in 70 2/3 innings.

The not-so-good news is that Jason Rajotte (5-4, 3.09) and Ronnie Hewes (6-2, 3.90), the Nos. 2 and 3 pitchers, have been up-and-down of late.

Both pitchers are going to have to get their breaking balls over and keep the ball down in the strike zone. Hewes could also benefit if his split-fingered fastball is working well.

Fourth starter Ryan Smith (3-2, 3.44) has to get his breaking ball over or he will be in trouble.

The bullpen is inexperienced and has a backward strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Lefty Lance Bogardus (1-3, 1 save, 5.40) clearly has the best stuff among the relievers but control is always a question mark. He will be the key man. Jason Dryswak (3-1, 6.83) is the righthanded short man.

LeRoy Decker (1-1, 1.44) has been very effective as a long man and first-year man Matt Cassidy (1-3, 4.96) has had some impressive stints.

The team ERA is 4.03 and Maine has given up only 19 homers. However, the pitchers have walked 203 in 368 1/3 innings.

All in all, this team can be a very, very good one as evidenced by wins over No. 1 Texas A&M and No. 24 Baylor and nine one-run losses against quality opponents on its spring trip.

The Bears could have just as easily returned with a 10-9 record instead of a 4-15 mark.

The Bears have been playing good, unselfish baseball of late and by tying or winning seven games in the seventh inning of their games up north, they have displayed excellent character.