National pundits think they have Maine all wrapped up. Maine loves centrist political leaders. They assume our state will – and should – re-elect Sen. Susan Collins, a skilled moderate in the tradition of Margaret Chase Smith. I don’t make election forecasts, but my reading of Maine’s history and current predicaments leads me to a different recommendation. On the tax, regulatory and spending issues that most affect our state, Collins does not measure up to the legacy of Sen. Smith. Chellie Pingree can stake a more plausible claim to the ideals of independence and equity that inspired Sen. Smith.

Maine enters the 2002 election in economic straits reminiscent of 1954, the year of Edmund Muskie’s first run for governor and Smith’s quest for re-election to a second term in the Senate. Patricia Schmidt, author of “Margaret Chase Smith: Beyond Convention,” characterizes mid-1950s Maine as suffering from the loss of jobs in its once robust industries to the cheap labor South and the emigration of young people in a desperate quest for jobs.

Muskie was able to overturn a long-standing Republican dynasty by challenging its hands-off approach to state problems. Smith’s re-election and her subsequent success were achieved by frequent challenges to mainstream economic orthodoxy, even views long accepted by many Maine Republicans. Her whole congressional career is distinguished not only by her famous dissent from McCarthyism but also by its implicit acceptance of much of New Deal liberalism.

Along with most conservatives, Smith supported Taft-Hartley, but she also dissented from the GOP by voting against other more strident forms of anti-strike legislation. More tellingly, she supported not only continuation but also expansion of a range of social programs. Schmidt comments: “Especially in the area of appropriation and expenditure of public funds was Margaret most likely to vote with the Democrats.

[In 1948,] when only one Republican vote was cast in the House to stop a 6 billion dollar cut in the Truman budget, that lone vote was Margaret’s.”

In the 1960s, Smith joined Sen. Muskie in voting for much of Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society. Both supported expansions of social security, the War on Poverty, emergency aid for urban jobs, and expanded federal revenue sharing.

Both Smith and Muskie, though to differing degrees, recognized that Maine’s economic future heavily depended on federal expenditures both to cushion the effects of unemployment, to foster retraining, to adequately monitor and police business competition, and to provide support for an adequate transportation system.

Just as in 1954, Maine today faces a major economic slowdown. Whatever decision Maine makes with respect to its next governor, that governor will act within a set of severe fiscal constraints. The fiscal hole that Maine and many other states now face would be best filled by generous revenue sharing from the federal government.

Reductions in the top marginal tax rates scheduled over the next decade – proposed by Bush and supported and endorsed by Sen. Collins – have several adverse consequences for Maine. Those cuts provide forty percent of their future benefits to the top one percent of income earners. Since Maine has relatively fewer wealthy citizens, these cuts are especially bad for Maine. If they are coupled with complete repeal of the estate tax, another likely consequence of Republican control of Congress, the economic foundations of necessary public initiatives will be further crippled.

Although Sen. Collins has recently indicated a willingness to scale back scheduled income tax reductions if future budget deficits become too large, the virtual certainty of out year deficits already spooks capital and currency markets. These deficit projections also are already lending political momentum to the drive to cut important domestic programs. Chellie Pingree has demonstrated political courage – even within her own cautious party – in suggesting that this future tax bonanza for the wealthy be frozen right now.

If the Bush administration economic policy, supported by Sen. Collins, is coupled with expanded trade authority for the President and Republican control of both Houses, Maine stands to see further erosion of its job base.

Just as Muskie and Smith did throughout much of their careers, Chellie Pingree offers a courageous but responsible progressive agenda. She recognizes that opportunities for Maine businesses and workers hinge on federal support for schools, for transportation, and even for financial and environmental regulation. Yet in the best Maine traditions, Pingree recognizes that federal initiatives need a sound fiscal foundation. She also has a history of insisting that Maine citizens get the best bang for any government buck. An early supporter of corporate reform, she insists on fair and competitive markets for drugs, accountability standards for corporate recipients of government largess, and broader employee participation in pension management. Chellie Pingree can restore and revitalize the best in Maine’s political heritage.

John Buell is a political economist who lives in Southwest Harbor. Readers wishing to contact him may e-mail messages to jbuell@acadia.net.