No one really knows how many moose are hiding in Maine bogs, but everyone, from biologists to sportsmen, are telling the same story this fall: There just aren’t as many of the ungainly beasts around as there used to be.

“Ten years ago, if you’d been up in [northern Maine], in a couple of days, you’d see 25 moose. Now, you see maybe three or four in a day,” said Don Loncto, a registered Maine Guide who escorts hunters and photographers.

In fact, annual state surveys of the number of moose spotted per hour by hunters have been declining steadily since about 1995, state wildlife biologist Karen Morris said Wednesday.

Although information about a decline in the moose population is purely anecdotal, the Department of Inland Fisheries and Wildlife last week recommended a 17 percent reduction in the size of next year’s moose hunt – from 3,000 to about 2,500 permits – to ensure the long-term sustainability of the herd.

“That generally works better than waiting for a crisis,” Morris said.

Maine’s moose herd is estimated at 29,000 animals, up from about 20,000 when the moose hunt started two decades ago. Morris is cautious about using these numbers – population counts are difficult to make with an animal as secretive as the moose.

“You would like to count every single moose, but realistically, you know you’re not going to,” she said.

Instead, Maine biologists send thousands of surveys to hunters each fall, asking them to track the number, age and gender of moose they encounter.

In the mid-1990s, hunters reported seeing a moose per hour. In recent years, peak sightings have been half that – maybe a moose every two hours, according to DIF&W data.

Morris believes the hunter surveys indicate a larger population trend.

Loncto and many of his fellow hunters disagree, blaming the disappearing moose on increasingly heavy forest cover.

“They’re there, it’s just hard to see them,” he said. “When we hunted this year, all a moose had to do was take one or two steps back, and it was swallowed up.”

Ironically, the number of moose-car accidents reported in Maine last year hit a record high, with 756 crashes and eight fatalities, according to the Department of Transportation.

Morris blames the discrepancy on regional differences. In southern Maine, crashes have less to do with moose than with an increase in cars, she said.

Maine biologists hope to conduct an aerial census this winter, using infrared cameras to count moose.

“It takes a long time, it’s very, very weather-dependent, and it’s expensive,” Morris said

To survey the state would cost nearly $1.5 million. The census would likely be done one wildlife management district at a time as money becomes available.

Early censuses would target northern and western districts, where hunting pressure has constantly increased for the past 20 years and the population decline is more evident, Morris said.

The biologist cites hunting and habitat as secondary concerns. She believes calf mortality to be the major cause of the population decline.

In Maine and New Hampshire, moose are being killed by winter ticks, a native parasite that is particularly hard on them in years when the fall and spring weather is mild.

“They become distracted by the ticks and they just stop eating,” she said.

Smaller, weaker calves are particularly susceptible. Winter ticks have never caused a population crash in New England, however, and Morris expects the population to recover.

“In a wildlife population, things will go up and down,” she said. “[But] we seem to want a constant population increase.”

The number of permits has increased nearly fourfold in the past 20 years, and some sportsmen are advocating for even larger hunts.

State biologists make their recommendations based on goals set by the general public. In 1999, biologists were asked to help boost the moose population in all but coastal Maine and far eastern Aroostook County, to provide for more hunting opportunity.

Over several years, the proposed reduction in the number of moose hunting permits should accomplish that goal despite the dip in Maine’s moose population, Morris said.

“The only thing that we control is the number of moose we hunt,” she said. “The other stuff is out of everybody’s hands.”