WASHINGTON – If President Bush decides to pursue a war against Iraq, hundreds of Maine residents will likely play an active role in the effort at home and overseas with the call-up of state National Guard and Reserves, according to military analysts.

Some believe that national mobilization could be as large as the 1991 Persian Gulf War, when just over 265,000 citizen-soldiers were mobilized.

“No matter how you cut it, it will be a huge call-up,” said Phil Anderson, a senior fellow for International Security at The Center for Strategic & International Studies. “In the worst-case scenario, if you assume a large-scale operation in Iraq, you don’t have any choice but to mobilize.”

Unlike Desert Storm, when a large portion of Guard and Reserve troops were stationed in the Persian Gulf region, one prominent military expert believes that forces will be deployed more widely around the world – and over a longer period of time.

“The initial call-up numbers won’t be quite as high as during the Gulf War, but over the course of a couple of years, they could be,” said Michael O’Hanlon, military analyst for the Brookings Institute, stressing he is only speculating on what may take place. “There could be a need to occupy Iraq and help keep the peace for an extended period.”

Following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks of last year on New York and Washington, the president called up Guard and Reserve forces for added homeland protection and the ensuing campaign in Afghanistan, including hundreds of the 4,000 National Guard troops from Maine.

Nationally, that number peaked in June of last year at 85,595 and dipped down to 58,133 this week according to Army Lt. Col. Stoneking, a National Guard and Reserve spokesman. Overall, between 125,000 and 130,000 have been deployed or rotated in the past year, he said.

Mobilization in Maine related to Sept. 11 included 234 Air Force guardsmen of the 101st Air Refueling Wing in Bangor – about the same number activated during the Gulf War. All but 68 remain on active duty, according to Air Force Col. Don McCormack and those men and women will be “coming off very shortly,” he said.

The Bangor wing is responsible for refueling military planes flying over the Atlantic and elsewhere.

Approximately 250 Army Guardsmen from three different units based in Maine were also mobilized over the past year, according to Army National Guard Maj. Peter Rogers.

A similar number took part in the war with Iraq more than 10 years ago, when one Bangor unit, the 286th Quartermaster Battalion, and another out of Gardiner, the 286th Supply and Service Battalion, were stationed in Saudi Arabia. A second Bangor unit, the 112th Medical Air Ambulance Company, was sent to Germany.

There are some 4,000 Army Guardsmen in Maine, 500 less than during the Gulf War, Rogers said.

Fewer National Guardsmen may be expected to serve in combat and direct support in the event of another war with Iraq, according to O’Hanlon and Anderson, but heightened fears of terrorist activity will likely trigger a greater need to protect military bases at home along with a variety of potential U.S. civilian targets, including urban centers, transportation facilities, power plants, hospitals and other critical infrastructure.

In addition, they expect that greater pressure will be placed on the Coast Guard and Navy Reserves to enhance homeland security and that American fighter pilots will be needed to provide greater vigilance above larger cities from the nation’s skies.