Fred Woodman of SAD 67 (Lincoln area) is the only school superintendent in northern Penobscot County not grappling with the issue of declining student enrollments.

Statewide, school enrollments continue to drop for the seventh year in a row, according to a preliminary analysis of the latest reports filed with the Maine Department of Education. Only three of Maine’s 16 counties – York, Androscoggin and Piscataquis – showed slightly higher enrollments compared with last year, but the increases are tiny, less than one-quarter of 1 percent.

“The numbers are pretty stark,” said Yellow Light Breen, a spokesman for the Department of Education. He said statewide enrollments are projected to drop 12 percent to 13 percent in the next eight years. “That trend is going to be even more stark in certain areas of the state, especially in rural areas of eastern and northern Maine where some districts have seen a 25 percent decline in the past decade,” he said.

The trend is similar in northern Penobscot County where three of the five school systems continue to see lower enrollments, according to this year’s October resident student reports. Resident enrollments are the number of schoolchildren who physically reside in a school district. It does not include tuition students.

Millinocket had the biggest loss this year, as it has had for the past 10 years. This year, enrollment was 841, a drop of 49 students, bringing its 10-year loss to a total of 404.

The decline has caused Millinocket school officials to close three schools and to push the issue of combining schools with neighboring towns. Millinocket and officials in School Union 113 (East Millinocket area) are studying the possibility of forming a new school district.

“It’s the combination of those decreasing numbers of pupils and the realization of the shrinking economic base that is driving the consolidation discussions,” said Brent Colbry, Millinocket’s superintendent. “If we stay as a separate entity what it means is the process of continued downsizing and becoming as efficient as we can will have to continue. There is no other choice.”

Colbry expects enrollments will continue to drop to about 700 in the next six or seven years.

In School Union 113, enrollments in two of the three towns show continued declines. East Millinocket’s resident enrollment is 322, down 14, bringing its 10-year loss to a total of 69.

Medway’s resident enrollment is 262, down six, resulting in a loss of 188 students in the last 10 years.

In Woodville, which sends all of its students to schools outside town, enrollments are 57, up 11 from last year, but five students fewer than the town had 10 years ago.

Union 113 Superintendent Sandra MacArthur said she believes officials need to look at sharing programs and services. As a small-school advocate, she says bigger isn’t always better and cheaper.

MacArthur said enrollments would continue to drop as larger classes graduate. She expects enrollments will stabilize. She said there are no empty classrooms and the schools will continue to make space fit enrollments and will continue to shift staff to meet the state’s new academic requirements.

She said the union has been very aggressive in seeking grants to help offset costs. It has received more than $532,000 this year. She said new state regulations and changes in graduation requirements could result in some students staying in school longer.

SAD 30’s (Lee area) enrollment is 312, a drop of eight, bringing its 10-year loss to a total of 43.

Small class sizes caused by declining enrollment forced the district to combine the third and fourth grades this year. Superintendent Jeff Fish says it wasn’t easy, but the district may have to consider combining other grades in the future.

In contrast, SAD 67 showed the biggest increase – 32 students to 1,299 this year. Enrollments have been stable in recent years, but have dropped by 39 compared with 10 years ago.

Woodman expected lower elementary enrollments this year, but received 23 more pupils. “We were pleasantly surprised. It will help us with state funding,” he said. He expects enrollments will remain stable.

Woodman attributes some of the increase to all of the land being sold in Lincoln and the growing trend of more people commuting to work.

In SAD 31 (Howland area), where the state has put a hold on a new $9.6 million high school until officials explore options to regionalize with neighboring school districts because of declining enrollments, the resident enrollment is 729, up 11. In the past 10 years, enrollments have dropped by a total of 101.

Superintendent Keith Cook said all of the studies about the benefits of small schools show a far more compelling reason to continue with the new high school project rather than simply looking at enrollment projections.

Cook said the district has three sets of enrollment projections, all showing declines, yet enrollments were 3.6 percent higher. “If they can’t project any closer than that over six months, why do I want to believe their projections for five or 10 years?” he asked.

Breen said that when state officials consider new school construction they look at enrollments for more than one year. “We look at the long-term trends,” he said. “To try to argue from a single-year blip that the 12- to 15-year trend is off doesn’t make much sense.”