MADAWASKA – A day after Fraser Paper announced 190 employees will lose their jobs over the next eight months, residents here have warily adopted a “wait-and-see” outlook.

“We have been lucky to run [as long] as we did,” George Morneault, a steam plant worker at Fraser for the last 35 years, said Friday morning. “I’ve been saying all along that Fraser was not immune to what has been happening elsewhere. I’ve been told I was a pessimist when I mentioned it.

“However, I don’t know how the mill will be able to run with all those people missing from it,” he said. “Efficiency will be hurt at some point. Some of these lost positions will affect us in the future.”

Thursday’s announcement by Bert Martin, Fraser’s president, has switched coffee shop chitchat in Madawaska from the war in Iraq to Fraser’s future and its impact on the community.

It won’t be known for at least a couple of weeks who at the Madawaska mill will take early retirement and who will be laid off. In all, cuts at Madawaska, which is considered to be the flagship of Nexfor Fraser Papers, and the Edmundston, New Brunswick, mill will total 325 jobs. Edmundston will lose 141 jobs, Fraser officials said.

The layoffs could extend into 2004, company officials said.

After the cuts, the two mills will employ 1,260. In December 2002, the two mills employed 1,591.

At one coffee shop Friday morning, patrons estimated that the 325 jobs were worth an estimated $16 million to $l7 million annually to the economy of Madawaska and Edmundston. One man said the Madawaska economy alone would be affected by $10 million. Other patrons estimated the average salary at the mills was about $50,000 a year.

That’s money that won’t be there to buy building materials, cars, recreational vehicles, clothing, meals at restaurants and a better education for children, they said.

Most residents said they knew cuts were coming, since they have been occurring in the industry generally. In North America in 2002, 33 paper machines were shut down permanently and five paper mills closed their doors.

Madawaska Selectman Cliff Chasse, a former educator in the local school system, said he was concerned for people in town who will lose opportunities as a result of the layoffs. But he remained optimistic Friday.

“The impact will be less because of attrition. I am glad Fraser is making that available to workers,” he said. “Workers elsewhere have been treated differently, where some were told one day they had no jobs.”

Other residents and officials were more cautious.

Many people said they understood why Fraser was cutting back. They said the company had choices to make in order to remain viable. But the loss of the salaries will change the region.

“It will affect the entire community,” said James Wetmore, owner of Central Building Supplies, a local building supply store. “We won’t know how much until we see who and what is being cut.

“A larger number of early retirements would be better,” he said. “If a large number of younger people go, it will change things dramatically. That could hurt the town dramatically.”

Aril Dube, a retired businessman, said the loss of the salaries will change the town forever. There is little work elsewhere in the town of 4,534 people, Dube warned.

“If the cuts are made among young workers, they will leave town because there is no other work,” he said.

Real Hebert a retired water district superintendent and former selectman, said he hopes the town and school department have taken notice.

“Do you think the Board of Selectmen and the school board, in their wisdom, will cut taxes accordingly?” he asked. “There will be less money in the economy, no matter how you look at this.

“We could not sell our homes before, and now we will have to give them away,” he said. “Maybe we can put out a sign: ‘Any donations accepted.'”

Town and school department officials have started the budget process.

A proposed budget will be presented in June.

The president of NorState Federal Credit Union, formerly the Fraser FCU, said his concerns are about people’s frame of mind.

“I think there will be some short-term negative reaction in the economy, and that is to be expected because people get nervous and unsure of their next move,” said David Rossignol. “By all accounts, it appears that the company is making moves to ensure the long-term viability of the mill.

“It’s unfortunate people get caught up in these things,” he said. “I hope people don’t overreact because there is always the possibility of people becoming immobilized, and that makes the negative effect worse.”

“People in the mill are taking a wait-and-see attitude,” said Richard Marston, manager of human resources at Fraser. “They are waiting to see what the details will be. We don’t see anyone panicking.”

The company has said it is redesigning some jobs, but which jobs will be affected, especially among salaried employees, is unknown.

Company officials will meet with the mills’ unions beginning Monday, Marston said.

A proposal to run the two mills as a single complex, combining services and staff functions such as finances and purchasing, will result in cuts in middle management.

Each mill will continue to have its own mill manager, Richard Arnold, Madawaska’s mill manager, said Thursday.

Among the unions, seniority provisions among hourly employees will dictate who keeps their jobs, Marston said – a “last in, first out” policy.

Since 2000, Fraser at Madawaska has hired about 50 people. From 1995 to 2000, the company had not added staff in order to lower its work force. With retirements during those years, Fraser reduced its work force by between 100 and 150.

No locals could recall Fraser ever having permanent layoffs in more than 75 years of operation. Some surmised that if Fraser had remained an independent company, as it was until the early 1970s, it would have been closed before now.